POLITICIANS AND SENIOR health officials have been playing down the need for full lockdown measures in recent days, as Ireland continues to endure the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
New measures, including a midnight closing time for bars and clubs, were introduced last week. It’s likely more – specifically focused on children – will come into effect soon after they’re discussed by Cabinet next Tuesday.
At earlier stages of the pandemic, severe lockdown measures have been quickly implemented by the government whenever case numbers have consistently stayed in the ‘thousands’.
It’s probably no surprise then that rumours of an impending lockdown have swirled online in recent days – with dates in mid-December being mooted for the reintroduction of ‘Level 5′ style measures.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar is the most recent senior politician to be asked about a potential lockdown. Speaking to reporters at an event in Dublin earlier he insisted that “the current epidemiological situation doesn’t warrant that”.
HSE boss Paul Reid also firmly quashed the rumours when asked about them at his weekly press briefing yesterday.
“We certainly haven’t been organising around a lockdown or anything like that,” Reid said. “We’ve tended not to do rumours.”
TheJournal had asked him for a response on the issue after the rumours – all touting similar dates – cropped up on Whats App groups, Twitter and Telegram earlier this week.
Website The Liberal.ie ran a story on Monday headlined: “Dates we understand that are being discussed to fully close pubs and a full lockdown again.”
The website claimed two unnamed sources from Leinster House had told them specific dates were being discussed. It listed 13 December as the “the date that would see pubs, nightclubs and restaurants being closed” and 20 December as a date for “a full lockdown”.
The article contained multiple qualifiers and noted that these dates were unconfirmed. It racked up over 3,080 interactions on Facebook by earlier today.
On Tuesday a group called Concerned Citizens Ireland tweeted “DECEMBER 13th set for a full lockdown in all likelyhood.[sic]”.
That post was liked over two thousand times by today.
By Wednesday the Licensed Vintners Association, which represents pubs in Dublin, decided to take to Twitter to dispel the online rumours, tweeting:
“To be clear the LVA is not aware of any lockdowns happening on 13 Dec or any other date.
“Restrictions/ lockdown COULD happen but the simple reality is no one knows what is coming yet.
Anything else is just speculation or worse.
So why are these rumours of a lockdown in mid-December wide of the mark?
When considering an answer it’s important to note that we could well see more severe measures introduced in December (similar decisions are being made in other European countries) but what we do know is that the scientists and health officials who examine the data don’t make decisions on what should happen in a few weeks’ time based on contemporary data.
When considering whether to recommend lockdown measures, experts examine the most up to date epidemiological data – including things like the latest case rates, hospitalisations and ICU admissions.
It would be, to say the least, pretty unorthodox for a government to confirm a lockdown using figures that would be three weeks old by the time of the proposed introduction of the measures.
If numbers were already looking dangerous, it wouldn’t make sense to wait three weeks to plan a lockdown, according to UCC Dean of Public Health Professor Ivan Perry
“The modelling will never be perfect but if we knew things were going to be at a level in three weeks’ time that would justify a lockdown we would act now.”
Professor Perry said modelling data is updated daily with a wide range of figures – including hospitalisation rates, vaccine coverage and research on whether people are actually restricting their movements.
This and the fact that the virus has a five day incubation period mean “it wouldn’t make sense” to try and plan a lock down that far ahead.
“It’s a dynamic process, if we’re thinking in three or four weeks time that covers multiple incubation periods. Why would we wait three weeks if we could see something happening? The earlier you intervene, the more effective.”
So while it isn’t impossible that a lockdown could occur on December 13th, the science means it wouldn’t make much sense to plan one that far in advance.
So far a lockdown or return to severe Level 5 restrictions has only been announced a few days at most, and a few hours in some cases, before being enacted.
The government is yet to impose a lockdown without NPHET recommending one first.
Usually the process begins with a NPHET meeting. Recommendations are made to the government. If the Cabinet signs-off, then a lockdown is announced and enacted within days, sometimes hours.
There were quicker turn-arounds between the Cabinet decision being made and lockdown measures being brought in in the early stages of the pandemic.
On March 27 2020, Leo Varadkar announced national stay-at-home advice that went into effect from midnight of that evening.
When Taoiseach Micheal Martin announced the country would move back in Level 5 restrictions on October 19 2020 he announced the measures would come into effect two days later, at midnight on the 21st. This came after NPHET’s letter recommending national Level 5 measures on 15 October.
The last lockdown was announced on 22 December 2020 with Level 5 restrictions enacted on the 24th. This was following a NPHET meeting on the 17th and a recommendation from CMO Tony Holohan to the Minister of Health on the 20th.
December 13th, the proposed date of the rumoured lockdown, is nearly three weeks away. As of yet, throughout the pandemic, no lockdown decision or official NPHET recommendation of a lockdown occurred more than a few days before it was put into effect.
NPHET met yesterday. Many of its leading members have been speaking to the media in recent days – and none of have indicated a December lockdown.
The Deputy Chief Medical officer Ronan Glynn told RTE’s Claire Byrne On Wednesday.
“We’ll just have to see where we are in a week/10 days time and, if necessary, provide further advice at that point.”
When asked if further advice equated to further restrictions the Minister clarified that “none of us want to be in that position particularly at this time of the year but if we see a disimprovement in the trajectory of the disease we’re going to have to make recommendations on the concerns”.
The CMO himself told Morning Ireland on Monday that NPHET would not rule out “giving difficult advice” to the government. But he also said it as still too early to see if measures introduced the previous week – like earlier closing times for pubs and the directive to work from home – were having the desired effect.
Simon Harris, the former health minister and now Minister for Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation & Science, addressed the 13 December rumour directly yesterday, telling Newstalk: ”We’re not in this space.”
He said there were “some signs of the initiatives already working”, pointing to a decrease in Covid cases among people over the age of 80.
“I am the Minister for Science, I really believe if we trust the science here the results in relation to booster vaccines – or the third dose of the vaccine, now – are just so, so positive.”
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